Final 2022 Oscar Winner Predictions

Well, our normal tradition of a podcast episode was thwarted by illness, but we still wanted to make sure that you saw Andrew's final predictions before Oscar night. The ceremony will be on ABC this Sunday, March 27th at 8:00 p.m. on ABC. 

Best Picture

Will Win - CODA

Could Win - The Power of the Dog

Should Win - Drive My Car

Commentary - The Power of the Dog has been out front for months now. However, I have always wondered how that film would do on the preferential ballot, which favors films that are well-liked. The Power of the Dog is well-respected, but it has its detractors. That hurts it with this kind of voting system. Then CODA won the PGA (which has a preferential ballot as well) and SAG. CODA, the film about a child of deaf parents, the coming-of-age film that makes you cheer. This is the kind of movie that wins on a preferential ballot. This is the film that everyone likes and it has few people rooting against its success. The Power of the Dog has so much support, 12 total nominations, and CODA would be the first film to win without a technical nod in a long time. So this is not a done deal by any means. However, at just the right moment CODA is peaking, and I think it will pull off a major upset. 

Best Director

Will Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Could Win - Steven Spielberg "West Side Story" or Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Should Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - Whatever happens in the Best Picture race, Jane Campion is winning Best Director. She has won every major precursor, she has dominated the season, and to be honest, while I didn't love The Power of the Dog, I completely respected the film as a piece of art, and think that Campion's direction was flawless. I think Oscar voters will agree. 

Best Actor

Will Win - Will Smith "King Richard"

Could Win - Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!" or Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Smith or Garfield

Commentary - I think this race is closer than a lot of people are expecting, and I would not be surprised at all if Andrew Garfield or Benedict Cumberbatch pulled out a last minute upset. But then Will Smith won SAG, and then, in a real shocker, won BAFTA, up against Cumberbatch who felt like a lock with British voters. That shows the depth of the support for Will Smith's magnum opus film King Richard. He has been acting for decades now, this is his third nomination, and he carries one of the biggest Oscar contenders with his bravura and screen presence. The time has come for him to finally get this level of recognition, and I think Oscar voters agree. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Could Win - Any of the other four

Should Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - The wildest race of the year continues to baffle prognosticators, especially as a lot of voters are expressing support for Penelope Cruz. She has zero precursors of note, and in many cases, was not even nominated. Yet, the calls for her win are growing louder and louder. Nicole Kidman lost the second she lost the SAG Award, and I feel that Kristen Stewart lost when she lost at Critics Choice, which felt like her group. Both of those awards went to Jessica Chastain for her passion project The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Olivia Colman has never won an individual SAG Award, and yet has an Emmy and an Oscar. She should not be discounted. Chastain is the front runner for now, but watch out for Cruz and Colman, as the surprises may last all the way up until the time the envelope is opened. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Could Win - Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - In the first phase of the Oscar season, Kodi Smit-McPhee was way out front for this award. Then SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA hit, and Troy Kotsur, a hard-working deaf character actor who finally got his break, swept the awards. Kotsur has the performance and the story to win over voters, and he is winning this award in a walk. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Could Win - Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard" or Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - Ariana DeBose tackles the iconic role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar, and did so with Rita Moreno sharing the screen. DeBose knocked it out of the park. She was bold, vibrant, emotionally resonant, and her talent lit up the screen. She will win her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Sian Heder "CODA"

Best Original Screenplay - Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Best Animated Feature - Encanto

Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature - Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography - Dune

Best Costume Design - Cruella

Best Film Editing - Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score - Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song - Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design - Dune

Best Sound - Dune

Best Visual Effects - Dune

Best Animated Short - Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short - The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short - The Long Goodbye

First 2022 Oscar Win Predictions

The nominations have been announced! Starting tomorrow night, the first guild awards start to announce their winners, giving us a clearer picture of who is out front in the Oscar race. Before those awards, here is Andrew's first take at who might take home gold on Oscar night.

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

Commentary - The Power of the Dog led the nomination pack, and overperformed by most pundits' standards, including getting a second Best Supporting Actor nomination. It also has the across-the-board support that films like Parasite, Nomadland, and The Shape of Water had, including the actors, the directors, the writers, and the technical branches. In confusing years like when Moonlight, Green Book, Spotlight won, it was the actor/writer focused movie that won out over the visual/director focused movie. The Power of the Dog has all the necessary components, and is the clear front runner. However, despite all evidence to the contrary, I still don't think it is a slam dunk. I think Campion is a slam dunk for Director and screenplay. But this film is not loveable. It doesn't have quite the emotional heft of films like Green Book, Nomadland, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, aka the films that have conquered the elusive preferential ballot. I think this helps Belfast and King Richard, both of which also did well with nominations, and are the types of films that may benefit from the current ballot system. 

Best Director

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - No matter what happens in Best Picture, I will be genuinely jaw-dropped if Campion doesn't sweep from here on out. 

Best Actor

Will Smith "King Richard"

Commentary - Smith will most likely win at SAG, and Cumberbatch will most likely win at BAFTA. Garfield is still the outlier threat, although tick, tick...BOOM! missing out on a Best Picture nomination  hindered some of his momentum. Conventional Oscar wisdom says that this is Will Smith's time, which would be an excellent choice for voters. But he has been filming a movie and has not been campaigning a lot. On the flipside Cumberbatch has been everywhere. We know that these campaigns are often effective (although Lady Gaga might disagree with you this year), and it could tip the scales in his favor. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - Don't believe anyone who tells you they know who is going to win Best Actress this year. They do not. This race continues to throw curveballs, and the final one could be on Oscar night. Kidman feels like the front runner for a lot of people, but Being the Ricardos was not as well liked outside of the acting branch. That means she will probably win SAG, but may not be a lock for the Oscar. Olivia Colman is strong, and has won a lot of awards lately. The problem is that she missed at BAFTA, and if she doesn't win SAG, there is no precursor to anchor a potential win. This goes for Kristen Stewart as well. She could upset, and there would be no way to see it coming. I am going out on a limb for Jessica Chastain. Chastain has never won despite several nominations, she is magnificent in the role, her film did get support outside of her nomination, and many would argue (I would definitely argue) she is way overdue for some recognition. I'll wait to see how SAG plays out, but my hunch is Chastain is stronger than we think. 

Best Supporting Actor

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - Everyone is predicting Kodi Smit-McPhee, as he was the critical darling, and in the Best Picture front runner. Two things could complicate his winning. First, he now has internal competition with Jesse Plemmons, who is a beloved veteran. Second, his performance is understated, odd, and has an erratic ending. By comparison, Troy Kotsur's performance in CODA makes you want to stand up and cheer. I think he surprises at SAG, and then surprises on Oscar night. 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - DeBose, Ellis, and Dunst would make for an interesting three-way race. The problem is that I don't think it is that much of a race. Ariana DeBose has been doing so well with the precursors, has the flashiest role of the bunch, is playing a character that has already won another actress an Oscar, and has the personal story that is really capturing the hearts of voters. I think she waltzes through the rest of the season on the way to her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

Best Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography

Dune

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Best Film Editing

Don't Look Up

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design

Dune

Best Sound

Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Best Animated Short

Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short

The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short

The Long Goodbye

2022 Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Oscar nominations will be announced bright and early at 8;15 a.m. EST on Tuesday, February 8th by Leslie Jordan and Tracee Ellis Ross. As promised in the Gaston Speaks episode, here are my FINAL, post-BAFTA nomination predictions!

Best Picture

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Other Contenders – tick, tick…boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, House of Gucci, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch

Commentary – So in the past couple of years, the Academy has had this 5-10 model, where the number of nominees could fluctuate. Almost every year, it was either eight or nine nominees. In that old system, I could predict your eight pretty easily based on the guilds so far. The five DGA nods (West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Dune), plus I would include CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard for their WGA/PGA/SAG Ensemble trifecta. BAFTA's five were Belfast, Dune, Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, and The Power of the Dog. Since they did not throw us any curveballs, I feel better about those eight predictions. But the Academy has decided to move back to a solid 10 nominees. The last two slots are tricky. The PGA went with Being the Ricardos and tick, tick…boom!. Crafty films like Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth have a lot of support from the below the line guilds. House of Gucci had a lot of SAG support, and yes, Spider-Man has been given an official Oscar campaign. I keep thinking that Being the Ricardos will falter at the Oscars, but it just keeps showing up and doing well at the guilds. I think it is in. tick, tick…boom! Got a PGA and WGA nod, and DGA first film nomination. But, when I am looking at its chances. It might only get Sound and Andrew Garfield, whereas Being the Ricardos could get Kidman, Bardem, screenplay, and maybe some craft nods. The last several years, the international membership of the Academy has exponentially increased, and you have seen that in some of the surprise nominations. I think Drive My Car could be the latest film to benefit, and will take the final slot. It could get Director, screenplay, and international film. Kind of reminds me of Amour a couple of years ago, which surprised in Best Picture. 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”

Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”

Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”

Ryusuke Hamaguchi “Drive My Car”

Denis Villeneuve “Dune”

Other Contenders – Steven Spielberg “West Side Story”, Pedro Almodovar “Parallel Mothers”

Commentary – The DGA five are the five that I have been predicting for a long time now. But, I know these Academy voters in this Director’s Branch, and they are an incredible diverse and international group of voters. You can see over the years the many times where they have gone for an out of the box pick. I think Spielberg could miss out. Even though he is fantastic, I could see them picking someone else over a director of a reboot and someone that have rewarded many times in the past. Again, I think that director Ryusuke Hamaguch for Drive My Car is going to take the slot. He got a BAFTA nod, just like Pawel Pawelowski and Thomas Vinterberg the last two years. This could also benefit Pedro Almodovar who has been nominated here before. The other four DGA Slots, I feel more comfortable about, those being Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog, Kenneth Branagh for Belfast, Denis Villeneuve for Dune, and Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza. 

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”

Leonardo DiCaprio “Don’t Look Up”

Andrew Garfield “tick, tick…boom!”

Will Smith “King Richard”

Denzel Washington “The Tragedy of Macbeth” 

Other Contenders – Javier Bardem “Being the Ricardos”, Peter Dinklage “Cyrano”, Cooper Hoffman “Licorice Pizza”, Mahershala Ali "Swan Song"

Commentary – This race, compared to some of the other ones, has been pretty consistent. There are four slots that are locked and ready to go. Will Smith for King Richard. Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”, Andrew Garfield “tick, tick…boom!”, and Denzel Washington “The Tragedy of Macbeth”. SAG put Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos in the last slot, but he is vulnerable. Peter Dinklage for Joe Wright’s Cyrano had a lot of support, but without BAFTA or SAG, his chances are diminishing quickly.  Cooper Hoffman is great in Licorice Pizza, and Mahershala Ali, a two-time Oscar winner, got a surprise BAFTA nod. But I am going with Leonardo DiCaprio for Adam McKay's Don't Look Up. When he missed at SAG, I felt like it was over, as he is one of the most rewarded actors in SAG history. But he did get in at BAFTA, and I feel like the love of Don't Look Up is getting stronger right at the most important moment. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza"

Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"

Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"

Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"

Other Contenders - Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers", Emilia Jones "CODA", Kristen Stewart "Spencer", Tessa Thompson "Passing"

Commentary - This race has been in so much flux, I am still expecting a jaw-dropper on Tuesday morning. BAFTA definitely threw this race for another loop, with their own Olivia Colman being snubbed, and the additions of Alana Haim and Emilia Jones. Colman should still be fine, she is beloved by the Oscar voters, is a recent Emmy winner, and last year the BAFTA jury snubbed Carey Mulligan, a fellow Brit who still managed an Oscar nomination. Lady Gaga is the only actor to hit all of the major precursors so far, and feels like a lock. SAG nominated Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman, who have been strong throughout the circuit, I feel like that will translate to Oscar voters. Also both have been honored before by this group. The final slot is a mess, and I feel like there are still four or five actresses in contention. Jennifer Hudson got in at SAG, and there is a lot of love for the former winner. Penelope Cruz, despite no major precursors, could do better with the more international makeup of the Academy compared to SAG and BAFTA. Emilia Jones got a surprise BAFTA nod, and CODA is a major Best Picture contender. Tessa Thompson also got in at BAFTA, and her co-star Ruth Negga is expected to get a Supporting nod. Could coattails follow, and both get in? I am switching my final slot to Alana Haim. The BAFTA nod was an unexpected for her and Licorice Pizza is performing incredibly well across the board. Voters are clearly watching this film, and she has received raves. I think she surprises. 

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"

Mike Faist "West Side Story"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Jared Leto "House of Gucci", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Jamie Dornan "Belfast", Woody Norman "C'mon C'mon"

Commentary - Only two guys in this race are locks: Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur for CODA. They have gotten all the major precursors, and I think the Oscar is between them. A lot of folks are predicting Smit-McPhee, but I think Kotsur, and his heartfelt performance, could easily sweep the second half of the awards. After the Belfast guys were snubbed at SAG, I expected a BAFTA rebound. Only Ciaran Hinds made the cut. I think that is an indication that Jamie Dornan's chances are diminishing fast. I do think Hinds will also cross over with Oscar voters. Bradley Cooper getting in at SAG, to me, was incredibly indicative of support, especially for such a small role. Also Licorice Pizza is clearly one of the top Best Picture contenders. House of Gucci did so well at SAG, with Jared Leto joining this race. I just wonder if that will translate to the Academy's voters, same thing with Ben Affleck in The Tender Bar. These feel like more populist SAG nominations than Oscar nods. Instead, I am going with BAFTA nominees Hinds, and Mike Faist for West Side Story. He has been mentioned a lot for the film, but missed out at the bigger ceremonies. The BAFTA nod showcases that the support is building. In the sixth slot is Jesse Plemmons, who finally popped up at BAFTA alongside his co-star Smit-McPhee. The performance is so subtle, I think the eye-popping singing and dancing of Feist will appeal more to the actors. Finally, Woody Norman's BAFTA nod was a great notice for a great performance, but that film looks like it is not getting anything else across the board. Plus child actors often get overlooked. 

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"

Ruth Negga "Passing"

Other Contenders - Jessie Buckley "The Lost Daughter", Ann Dowd "Mass", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Rita Moreno "West Side Story"

Commentary - Another category with so much in flux. Between SAG and BAFTA, we have eight contenders for five slots (and I am still keeping in Rita Moreno just in case). Caitriona Balfe for Belfast, Ariana DeBose for West Side Story, and Ruth Negga for Passing, are the only three that have gotten all of the major precursors so far. Cate Blanchett got in for Nightmare Alley at SAG, but that film has since not done as well with the guild awards. Also, the populist voting body of SAG often throws in bigger names that end up not making the final Oscar cut. Kirsten Dunst felt like a lock, but missed out at BAFTA, a surprise considering Jesse Plemmons got in for Supporting Actor. But I still feel like she is solid, due to the popularity of that film overall. In the final slot, I am keeping Aunjanue Ellis. I feel like she was the sixth slot for SAG, and she managed a BAFTA nod, which I was not predicting. Jessie Buckley feels like the wild card here for The Lost Daughter. Her BAFTA nod confirmed she is in the hunt. Ann Dowd's BAFTA nod also boosted a campaign that sputtered when she missed out at SAG. I think both of them could surprise on Tuesday morning. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sian Heder "CODA"

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"

Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Steven Levenson "tick, tick...boom!", Tony Kushner "West Side Story"

Commentary - For full details, check out the Gaston Speaks episode. BAFTA confirmed my predictions. 

Best Original Screenplay

Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos"

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Adam McKay "Don't Look Up"

Zach Baylin "King Richard"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Other Contenders - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola & Hugo Guinness & Jason Schwartzman "The French Dispatch", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon"

Commentary - For full details, check out the Gaston Speaks episode. BAFTA confirmed my predictions. 

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Other Contenders - Belle, Sing 2, The Summit of the Gods

Best Documentary Feature

Ascension

Flee

Procession

The Rescue

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Would Not Be Televised)

Other Contenders - Attica, Writing With Fire, Simple as Water, The Velvet Underground, Julia, The First Wave, In the Same Breath

Best International Feature

Drive My Car (Japan)

Flee (Denmark)

The Hand of God (Italy)

A Hero (Iran)

The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Other Contenders - Hive (Kosovo), Compartment No. 6 (Finland), Lamb (Iceland), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)

Best Cinematography

Greig Fraser "Dune"

Dan Laustsen "Nightmare Alley"

Linus Sandgren "No Time to Die"

Ari Wegner "The Power of the Dog"

Burno Delbonnel "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Haris Zambarloukos "Belfast", Janusz Kaminski "West Side Story"

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Other Contenders - Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Coming 2 America, The Green Knight, The Suicide Squad, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Don't Look Up, In the Heights, No Time to Die

Best Film Editing

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

Other Contenders - King Richard, tick, tick...boom!, Summer of Soul, West Side Story, The French Dispatch, Cruella

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

West Side Story

Other Contenders - Cyrano, Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die

Best Original Score

Daniel Pemberton "Being the Ricardos"

Nicholas Britell "Don't Look Up"

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Alexandre Desplat "The French Dispatch"

Jonny Greenwood "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Alberto Iglesias "Parallel Mothers", Hans Zimmer "No Time to Die", Kris Bowers "King Richard", Germaine Franco "Encanto", Daniel Hart "The Green Knight"

Best Original Song

Don' Look Up - Just Look Up

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Four Good Days - Somehow You Do

King Richard - Be Alive

No Time to Die - No Time to Die

Other Contenders - Respect - Here I Am Singing My Own Way Home, Belfast - Down to Joy, Annette - So May We Start, Sing 2 - Your Song Saved My Life, CODA - Beyond the Shore

Best Production Design

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Other Contenders - Cyrano, Licorice Pizza, Cruella, Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Green Knight, House of Gucci, Spencer, Being the Ricardos

Best Sound

Dune

The Power of the Dog

A Quiet Place Part II

tick, tick...boom!

West Side Story

Other Contenders - The Power of the Dog, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Last Night in Soho

Best Visual Effects

Dune

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Other Contenders - Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Godzilla vs. Kong, Eternals, Black Widow

Best Animated Short

Only a Child

Robin Robin

Step Into the River

Us Again

The Windshield Wiper

Best Documentary Short

Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis

The Queen of Basketball

Terror Contagion

Three Songs for Benazir

When We Were Bullies

Best Live Action Short

Censor Dreams

The Criminals

The Long Goodbye

Tala'vision

When The Sun Sets

Gaston Speaks Oscar Nominations

 Andrew Still Really, Really Likes Awards Shows! And he's back on Gaston Speaks to share his Oscar nomination predictions.

Use the player below to listen or look up Gaston Speaks on your preferred podcast app.

 After listening, share your thoughts on Oscar nominations and who you hope to see nominated and what you think Mr. Williams first name might be.

2022 Pre-Guild Oscar Nomination Predictions

As the critical awards wrap up in Phase 1, Phase 2 of Oscar season, the guild phase, is already starting to change the game. The critics awards are a great way to get your film recognized, and to increase the buzz on your film. But the guilds, and BAFTA (the British Oscars), are the real tests of your film's overall strength. These voters have direct crossovers with the Academy, and have been much more indicative over the years than the critics groups. So far we have the SAG Nominations and the BAFTA Longlists, both of which are giving us an early snapshot of how the industry itself is viewing these contenders. The Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), the Writers Guild (WGA), and the final BAFTA nominations, along with the craft guilds will create a clearer picture heading into February 8th's nomination announcement. So let's take a look at where the race stands before the flood of guild nominations. Also, be on the lookout for an upcoming episode of Gaston Speaks for my final Oscar nomination predictions!

Best Picture

Belfast 

CODA

Don't Look Up

Dune

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Other Contenders - Drive My Car, tick, tick...boom!, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Nightmare Alley, Spencer, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers

Commentary - Belfast, The Power of the Dog and Dune continue to do well across the board. All three will end up with the kind of broad support that builds a Best Picture nomination. King Richard has slipped lately, and the absence of Aunjanue Ellis at SAG is not a great sign for the film. However it still managed a SAG Ensemble nod, and I think will do well at the other guilds. Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and The Tragedy of Macbeth only managed one SAG nod apiece, but again, I am seeing a lot of support for these films, and all three should make the PGA cut, and do well with the craft guilds. CODA is still the little film that could, managing a SAG Ensemble nod, and continuing to pop up in the critical awards. It will need the power of the PGA Award, and maybe some surprise BAFTA love to continue to stay in the race. If it manages to do so, watch out. It is a film that makes your heart beat, and those films often do well on the preferential ballot for Best Picture. The final two slots are head scratchers at the moment. I have left in Don't Look Up despite negative critical reviews. It keeps popping up at the critical awards (a weird coincidence), and got the SAG Ensemble nomination. It is also incredibly popular at Netflix, smashing viewership expectations, and the audiences have been much more kind. The critics may not be happy (although again, it clearly has its supporters as it has gotten a surprising amount of love with the critical awards), but this feels like the kind of movie that the industry will support, and it clearly has a passionate fanbase that is going to bat for it on their ballots. The final slot was shocker for me, as I moved House of Gucci back into the race. Like Don't Look Up, its critical outcome was pretty mixed. However, after its great showing at SAG, an excellent box office run, and its stunning 13 mentions in the BAFTA longlists, including Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay, and Adam Driver and Al Pacino, this film feels like it is a lot stronger than expected. Again, it seems to have a passionate fanbase that its going all out. Beyond those ten, Drive My Car has done well with critics, but has yet to see guild love. No Time to Die could rack up a lot of love with BAFTA, which could propel it to more Oscar love than expected. Spider-Man: No Way Home is launching a huge effort. Finally, Parallel Mothers, tick, tick...boom!, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, Spencer, and Being the Ricardos are hitting a lot of the right notes and could surprise. 

Best Director

Ryusuke Hamaguchi "Drive My Car" 

Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Steven Spielberg "West Side Story"

Other Contenders - Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Kenneth Branagh "Belfast", Sian Heder "CODA", Reinaldo Marcus Green "King Richard", Ridley Scott "House of Gucci", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos"

Commentary - Villeneuve, Anderson, Campion, and Spielberg, unless the DGA and BAFTA throw us a curveball, look solid at this point. The last slot is tricky. I have recently moved out folks like Branagh, Heder, and Green. Their films may do well in the Best Picture race, but they are not the kind of films that do well with this eccentric Directors Branch of the Academy. Adam McKay might surprise for a third time in this category, and I have him in sixth place. Joel Coen, Pedro Almodovar, and Guillermo Del Toro are favorites of these voters. Lin-Manuel Miranda's direction is stylish, and Ridley Scott, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and Aaron Sorkin are interesting outliers. Instead, whether Drive My Car gets into Best Picture or not, I think this branch is going to easily go for Ryusuke Hamaguchi's brilliant direction of Drive My Car. Lots of foreign film directors or visionary indie directors have made the Best Director list, even if their films missed Best Picture. Just last year, we saw Thomas Vinterberg get in, but Another Round did not. Since 2000 names like David Lynch, Pedro Almodovar, Fernando Meirielles, Paul Greengrass, Mike Leigh, Julian Schnabel, Bennett Miller, and Pawel Pawlikowski have gotten a Best Director nod, while their films missed the top prize. Hamaguchi feels like he will join the list. 

Best Actor

Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos"

Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!"

Will Smith "King Richard"

Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up", Daniel Craig "No Time to Die", Nicholas Cage "Pig", Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley", Joaquin Phoenix "C'mon C'mon", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza"

Commentary - Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are ready to go for this race that could be a fun one to watch to see who wins. That fifth slot is a toss-up. Javier Bardem got in at SAG, I think DiCaprio or Dinklage will get a BAFTA nod, and I still think voters might look to Nicholas Cage. Right now, I am sticking with Bardem, a previous winner that is getting a lot of buzz despite the films overall mixed response. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"

Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"

Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"

Kristen Stewart "Spencer"

Other Contenders - Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Emilia Jones "CODA", Frances McDormand "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Jennifer Lawrence "Don't Look Up", Renate Reinsve "The Worst Person in the World", Tessa Thompson "Passing"

Commentary - Kristen Stewart missing out at SAG was the jaw dropper of that morning. Can she rebound? I think the answer is yes. I think BAFTA will go for her, and I think that her missing at SAG has enraged her supporters, and made them even more determined to get her a nomination. Think Ben Affleck in Argo, and the effectiveness of that campaign. So then who gets left out? I don't foresee Colman, Gaga, or Kidman missing out at this point. Unfortunately I think it is Jennifer Hudson, who was excellent in Respect, even though the film overall was not. Jessica Chastain is also vulnerable because, like Hudson, The Eyes of Tammy Faye is not getting a lot of love really anywhere else. Although Chastain has been stronger throughout the season, and I think, right now at least, she retains her spot.  Beyond Stewart, I think there still could be some surprises waiting for the slots currently held by Hudson, and maybe Chastain. Rachel Zegler is a powerhouse, Alana Haim is getting a lot of attention, and BAFTA could throw a curveball with Reinsve. 

Best Supporting Actor

Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Jared Leto "House of Gucci"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog" 

Other Contenders - Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Jamie Dornan "Belfast", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Mike Faist "West Side Story", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Mark Rylance "Don't Look Up"

Commentary - This race has the most intrigue to it, and the most chances for surprises. When neither Belfast actor made the SAG cut, a lot of folks were thrown for a loop. I think that BAFTA could correct that, and at least one of them, most likely Hinds, who is the better performance, can still take a slot. That slot is most likely Ben Affleck's. The Tender Bar is not doing well outside of his performance, and this feels like one of those SAG Nods that ends of missing the cut. Think Jennifer Aniston in Cake. Kotsur, Leto, and Smit-McPhee feel solid, and even though it is small role, the outsized influence that Cooper's performance has had, and now a SAG nod, makes him feel like a strong contender moving forward. However, as this race continues to baffle the experts, and names like Dornan, Simmons, Plemmons, Faist, and Rylance cannot be forgotten. 

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"

Ruth Negga "Passing"

Other Contenders - Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Cate Blanchett "Don't Look Up", Ann Dowd "Mass", Marlee Matlin "CODA", Rita Moreno "West Side Story", Judi Dench "Belfast", Meryl Streep "Don't Look Up"

Commentary - Ellis' snub at SAG was a big miss, especially considering the reception she received at SAG events. However, I think Cate Blanchett, as popular as she is, is vulnerable. She made the BAFTA longlist cut, but for Don't Look Up. If those two films are splitting her votes, and Nightmare Alley continues to slip in the overall race, I think she is the one SAG nominee that doesn't cross over. In that case, I think Ellis can still take her rightful slot alongside Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Negga, who feel like they are getting close to safe in this race. Ann Dowd's SAG miss most likely means she is out of the race, as is Marlee Matlin, who also missed the BAFTA longlists. I am also continuing to keep my eye out for the trio of Oscar-winning legends, Rita Moreno, Meryl Streep, and Judi Dench. Oscar voters may not want to pass up yet another chance to reward these three endearing favorites. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sian Heder "CODA"

Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Tony Kushner "West Side Story"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branah "Belfast"

Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up"

Zach Baylin "King Richard"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers"

Best Animated Feature

Belle

Encanto

Luca

The Mitchells vs. The Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Documentary Feature

Flee

In the Same Breath

Procession

The Rescue

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Would Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature

Drive My Car (Japan)

Flee (Denmark)

The Hand of God (Italy)

A Hero (Iran) 

The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

Best Cinematography

Greig Fraser "Dune"

Dan Laustsen "Nightmare Alley"

Ari Wegner "The Power of the Dog"

Bruno Delbonnel "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Janusz Kaminiski "West Side Story""  

Best Costume Design

Cruella

House of Gucci

Dune

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Best Film Editing

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Dune

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Cruella

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

Best Original Score

Nicholas Britell "Don't Look Up"

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Alexandre Desplat "The French Dispatch" 

Alberto Iglesias "Parallel Mothers" 

Jonny Greenwood "The Power of the Dog"

Best Original Song

Don't Look Up - Just Look Up

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Four Good Days - Somehow You Do

King Richard - Be Alive

No Time to Die - No Time to Die

Best Production Design

The French Dispatch

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Best Sound

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick...boom!

West Side Story

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Godzilla vs. Kong

The Matrix Resurrections

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

First 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

For fans of Gaston Speaks, have no fear! We will be recording our annual Oscar nomination predictions for our ongoing series, Andrew Really Really Likes Awards Shows. But, the Oscar season is an ongoing behemoth that goes through many different stages. Right now, most of the film festivals have happened, and we only have a few unseen contenders left to join the race. Starting at the end of the month, and through Christmas, the critics groups across the country will bring an avalanche of honors, followed by the guilds, and then the Oscars. Before the avalanche, I wanted to give you all a snapshot of where the Oscar race currently stands heading into the thick of awards season, and utilize Off the Shelf as an extension of our Gaston Speaks series. 

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Other Contenders - tick, tick...boom!, Spencer, Flee, West Side Story, The Lost Daughter, Passing, Being the Ricardos, C'mon C'mon, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Harder They Fall, House of Gucci

Commentary - The Academy has moved back to a solid ten nominations, a welcomed change. The early contenders including Kenneth Branagh's Belfast, Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, Will Smith's passion project King Richard, and Denis Villeneuve's Dune feel set to sweep a lot of the major awards. They have the critical support and the Oscar buzz coming out of the summer and fall film festivals. CODA was a Sundance favorite, with a beating heart that might be too much for voters to ignore. The Tragedy of Macbeth is Joel Coen with Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand. That combination, along with great reviews, will get voters' attention. Paul Thomas Anderson's latest Licorice Pizza is earning him career-best reviews, and his last effort, Phantom Thread, was a last minute breakthrough contender. The last several years a foreign language entry has made the cut. It is about time that a Pedro Almodovar film gets a Best Picture nomination, and Parallel Mothers is apparently fantastic. Finally, sight unseen, I am still betting on Guillermo Del Toro and Adam McKay to come through with Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up. Both are Academy Award winners, and their recent efforts have received a lot of support. 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley"

Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Other Contenders - Reinaldo Marcus King "King Richard", Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Paolo Sorrentino "The Hand of God", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Pablo Larrain "Spencer", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Steven Spielberg "West Side Story", Sian Heder "CODA", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Rebecca Hall "Passing", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon", Ridley Scott "House of Gucci"

Commentary - The Director's Branch is a notoriously contrary group of voters. They almost always  pick a surprise on Oscar morning. Also, since the expansion of the Best Picture field, director has become tied less to Best Picture, compared to the actors and the writers. That's why, despite it being a top Best Picture contender, I have a sneaking suspicion that King Richard's director Reinaldo Marcus King will be left out for a more visually driven contender. All of that being said, right now, there are three contenders that feel really strong heading into the thick of Oscar season. Jane Campion returns after almost a decade with The Power of the Dog, Kenneth Branagh creates his most personal film to-date in Belfast, and Denis Villeneuve proves that Dune is no longer the "unfilmable" behemoth many thought it to be. Those last two slots though have a lot of contenders (as you can see in the "Other Contenders" section). Right now, I am sticking with two previous favorites of this branch. First is Guillermo Del Toro, who won this award the last time he had a major film in contention. The other is Paul Thomas Anderson. The first reviews of Licorice Pizza have painted this film a masterpiece, and the directors branch has liked his past work.  

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up"

Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!" 

Will Smith "King Richard"

Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley", Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Clifton Collins Jr. "Jockey", Joaquin Phoenix "C'mon C'mon", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza", Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos", Simon Rex "Red Rocket", Jude Hill "Belfast", Timothee Chalamet "Dune", Adam Driver "House of Gucci", Daniel Craig "No Time to Die"

Commentary - A veteran-heavy race, Best Actor is shaping up to be a battle of the acting juggernauts. Will Smith plays Venus and Serena William's father in King Richard, and is apparently a knock-out. Denzel Washington plus Joel Coen plus Shakespeare just screams: ninth acting Oscar nomination. Benedict Cumberbatch plays the bad guy in The Power of the Dog, is receiving rave notices. Andrew Garfield is playing Jonathan Larson, and early reviews have rocketed him into the top five. Finally, despite the film being a sight unseen, I don't ever bet against Leonardo DiCaprio, who looks to have another rollicking good time in Adam McKay's Don't Look Up opposite Jennifer Lawrence. 

Best Actress

Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"

Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers"

Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricados"

Frances McDormand "The Tragedy of Macbeth" 

Kristen Stewart "Spencer" 

Other Contenders - Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Jennifer Lawrence "Don't Look Up", Lady Gaga "House of Gucci", Tessa Thompson "Passing", Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye", Rooney Mara "Nightmare Alley", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Emilia Jones "CODA", Sandra Bullock "The Unforgivable"

Commentary - This is my confession: I have never particularly liked Kristen Stewart. Maybe it is the horror of the Twilight series that turned me off of her acting, but, despite some excellent projects since that series, I still struggle watching her perform. Spencer is set to change that, and she could win her first Oscar for playing Princess Diana in Pablo Larrain's latest biopic. She will face off against British royalty Olivia Colman, who is fresh off an Emmy win where she upset her co-star Emma Corrin, who ironically, also played Princess Diana. Penelope Cruz is an Oscar winner, and knocks it out of the park yet again in a Pedro Almodovar film. Frances McDormand won her third Best Actress Oscar just last year for Nomadland, and is coming for her fourth Oscar in Tragedy of Macbeth opposite Denzel Washington. Finally, I was saving a slot for Jennifer Lawrence, who is still in my sixth slot for the unseen Don't Look Up. But, after the initial SAG screening reactions, it looks like Nicole Kidman gives a knockout performance as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos. Oscar voters love their biopics, and Kidman is a previous winner. 

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe "Nightmare Alley"

Jamie Dornan "Belfast"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast" 

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Jon Bernthal "King Richard", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Richard Jenkins "The Humans", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Robin de Jesus "tick, tick...boom!", Jared Leto "House of Gucci", Al Pacino "House of Gucci", David Alvarez "West Side Story", Corey Hawkins "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Jonah Hill "Don't Look Up", Idris Elba "The Harder They Fall", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Colman Domingo "Zola", Jason Isaacs "Mass", Reed Birney "Mass", Mary Rylance "Don't Look Up", David Strathairn "Nightmare Alley"

Commentary - This race feels like the most up in the air heading into the thick of Oscar season. The only two that seem really solid right now are Ciaran Hinds for Belfast and Kodi Smith-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. Two scene-stealing performers in Best Picture frontrunners. While Jamie Dornan has not received as high of marks as his co-stars for his performance in Belfast, that film is so buzzed right now, and he is working the campaign circuit. Those two things always help in a close or toss-up race. CODA is the little film that could, and Troy Kotsur is a beating heart on screen. Finally, sight unseen, Willem Dafoe has racked up a lot of Oscar nods recently and he is once again taking on a big role, this time in a Guillermo Del Toro film. It feels like an Oscar nomination to me. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sian Heder "CODA"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Guillermo Del Toro and Kim Morgan "Nightmare Alley"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up"

Zach Baylin "King Richard"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers"