First 2022 Oscar Win Predictions

The nominations have been announced! Starting tomorrow night, the first guild awards start to announce their winners, giving us a clearer picture of who is out front in the Oscar race. Before those awards, here is Andrew's first take at who might take home gold on Oscar night.

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

Commentary - The Power of the Dog led the nomination pack, and overperformed by most pundits' standards, including getting a second Best Supporting Actor nomination. It also has the across-the-board support that films like Parasite, Nomadland, and The Shape of Water had, including the actors, the directors, the writers, and the technical branches. In confusing years like when Moonlight, Green Book, Spotlight won, it was the actor/writer focused movie that won out over the visual/director focused movie. The Power of the Dog has all the necessary components, and is the clear front runner. However, despite all evidence to the contrary, I still don't think it is a slam dunk. I think Campion is a slam dunk for Director and screenplay. But this film is not loveable. It doesn't have quite the emotional heft of films like Green Book, Nomadland, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, aka the films that have conquered the elusive preferential ballot. I think this helps Belfast and King Richard, both of which also did well with nominations, and are the types of films that may benefit from the current ballot system. 

Best Director

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - No matter what happens in Best Picture, I will be genuinely jaw-dropped if Campion doesn't sweep from here on out. 

Best Actor

Will Smith "King Richard"

Commentary - Smith will most likely win at SAG, and Cumberbatch will most likely win at BAFTA. Garfield is still the outlier threat, although tick, tick...BOOM! missing out on a Best Picture nomination  hindered some of his momentum. Conventional Oscar wisdom says that this is Will Smith's time, which would be an excellent choice for voters. But he has been filming a movie and has not been campaigning a lot. On the flipside Cumberbatch has been everywhere. We know that these campaigns are often effective (although Lady Gaga might disagree with you this year), and it could tip the scales in his favor. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - Don't believe anyone who tells you they know who is going to win Best Actress this year. They do not. This race continues to throw curveballs, and the final one could be on Oscar night. Kidman feels like the front runner for a lot of people, but Being the Ricardos was not as well liked outside of the acting branch. That means she will probably win SAG, but may not be a lock for the Oscar. Olivia Colman is strong, and has won a lot of awards lately. The problem is that she missed at BAFTA, and if she doesn't win SAG, there is no precursor to anchor a potential win. This goes for Kristen Stewart as well. She could upset, and there would be no way to see it coming. I am going out on a limb for Jessica Chastain. Chastain has never won despite several nominations, she is magnificent in the role, her film did get support outside of her nomination, and many would argue (I would definitely argue) she is way overdue for some recognition. I'll wait to see how SAG plays out, but my hunch is Chastain is stronger than we think. 

Best Supporting Actor

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - Everyone is predicting Kodi Smit-McPhee, as he was the critical darling, and in the Best Picture front runner. Two things could complicate his winning. First, he now has internal competition with Jesse Plemmons, who is a beloved veteran. Second, his performance is understated, odd, and has an erratic ending. By comparison, Troy Kotsur's performance in CODA makes you want to stand up and cheer. I think he surprises at SAG, and then surprises on Oscar night. 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - DeBose, Ellis, and Dunst would make for an interesting three-way race. The problem is that I don't think it is that much of a race. Ariana DeBose has been doing so well with the precursors, has the flashiest role of the bunch, is playing a character that has already won another actress an Oscar, and has the personal story that is really capturing the hearts of voters. I think she waltzes through the rest of the season on the way to her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

Best Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography

Dune

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Best Film Editing

Don't Look Up

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design

Dune

Best Sound

Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Best Animated Short

Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short

The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short

The Long Goodbye