First 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

For fans of Gaston Speaks, have no fear! We will be recording our annual Oscar nomination predictions for our ongoing series, Andrew Really Really Likes Awards Shows. But, the Oscar season is an ongoing behemoth that goes through many different stages. Right now, most of the film festivals have happened, and we only have a few unseen contenders left to join the race. Starting at the end of the month, and through Christmas, the critics groups across the country will bring an avalanche of honors, followed by the guilds, and then the Oscars. Before the avalanche, I wanted to give you all a snapshot of where the Oscar race currently stands heading into the thick of awards season, and utilize Off the Shelf as an extension of our Gaston Speaks series. 

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Other Contenders - tick, tick...boom!, Spencer, Flee, West Side Story, The Lost Daughter, Passing, Being the Ricardos, C'mon C'mon, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Harder They Fall, House of Gucci

Commentary - The Academy has moved back to a solid ten nominations, a welcomed change. The early contenders including Kenneth Branagh's Belfast, Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, Will Smith's passion project King Richard, and Denis Villeneuve's Dune feel set to sweep a lot of the major awards. They have the critical support and the Oscar buzz coming out of the summer and fall film festivals. CODA was a Sundance favorite, with a beating heart that might be too much for voters to ignore. The Tragedy of Macbeth is Joel Coen with Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand. That combination, along with great reviews, will get voters' attention. Paul Thomas Anderson's latest Licorice Pizza is earning him career-best reviews, and his last effort, Phantom Thread, was a last minute breakthrough contender. The last several years a foreign language entry has made the cut. It is about time that a Pedro Almodovar film gets a Best Picture nomination, and Parallel Mothers is apparently fantastic. Finally, sight unseen, I am still betting on Guillermo Del Toro and Adam McKay to come through with Nightmare Alley and Don't Look Up. Both are Academy Award winners, and their recent efforts have received a lot of support. 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley"

Denis Villeneuve "Dune"

Other Contenders - Reinaldo Marcus King "King Richard", Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Paolo Sorrentino "The Hand of God", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Pablo Larrain "Spencer", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Steven Spielberg "West Side Story", Sian Heder "CODA", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Rebecca Hall "Passing", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon", Ridley Scott "House of Gucci"

Commentary - The Director's Branch is a notoriously contrary group of voters. They almost always  pick a surprise on Oscar morning. Also, since the expansion of the Best Picture field, director has become tied less to Best Picture, compared to the actors and the writers. That's why, despite it being a top Best Picture contender, I have a sneaking suspicion that King Richard's director Reinaldo Marcus King will be left out for a more visually driven contender. All of that being said, right now, there are three contenders that feel really strong heading into the thick of Oscar season. Jane Campion returns after almost a decade with The Power of the Dog, Kenneth Branagh creates his most personal film to-date in Belfast, and Denis Villeneuve proves that Dune is no longer the "unfilmable" behemoth many thought it to be. Those last two slots though have a lot of contenders (as you can see in the "Other Contenders" section). Right now, I am sticking with two previous favorites of this branch. First is Guillermo Del Toro, who won this award the last time he had a major film in contention. The other is Paul Thomas Anderson. The first reviews of Licorice Pizza have painted this film a masterpiece, and the directors branch has liked his past work.  

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up"

Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!" 

Will Smith "King Richard"

Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Other Contenders - Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley", Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Clifton Collins Jr. "Jockey", Joaquin Phoenix "C'mon C'mon", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza", Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos", Simon Rex "Red Rocket", Jude Hill "Belfast", Timothee Chalamet "Dune", Adam Driver "House of Gucci", Daniel Craig "No Time to Die"

Commentary - A veteran-heavy race, Best Actor is shaping up to be a battle of the acting juggernauts. Will Smith plays Venus and Serena William's father in King Richard, and is apparently a knock-out. Denzel Washington plus Joel Coen plus Shakespeare just screams: ninth acting Oscar nomination. Benedict Cumberbatch plays the bad guy in The Power of the Dog, is receiving rave notices. Andrew Garfield is playing Jonathan Larson, and early reviews have rocketed him into the top five. Finally, despite the film being a sight unseen, I don't ever bet against Leonardo DiCaprio, who looks to have another rollicking good time in Adam McKay's Don't Look Up opposite Jennifer Lawrence. 

Best Actress

Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"

Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers"

Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricados"

Frances McDormand "The Tragedy of Macbeth" 

Kristen Stewart "Spencer" 

Other Contenders - Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Jennifer Lawrence "Don't Look Up", Lady Gaga "House of Gucci", Tessa Thompson "Passing", Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye", Rooney Mara "Nightmare Alley", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Emilia Jones "CODA", Sandra Bullock "The Unforgivable"

Commentary - This is my confession: I have never particularly liked Kristen Stewart. Maybe it is the horror of the Twilight series that turned me off of her acting, but, despite some excellent projects since that series, I still struggle watching her perform. Spencer is set to change that, and she could win her first Oscar for playing Princess Diana in Pablo Larrain's latest biopic. She will face off against British royalty Olivia Colman, who is fresh off an Emmy win where she upset her co-star Emma Corrin, who ironically, also played Princess Diana. Penelope Cruz is an Oscar winner, and knocks it out of the park yet again in a Pedro Almodovar film. Frances McDormand won her third Best Actress Oscar just last year for Nomadland, and is coming for her fourth Oscar in Tragedy of Macbeth opposite Denzel Washington. Finally, I was saving a slot for Jennifer Lawrence, who is still in my sixth slot for the unseen Don't Look Up. But, after the initial SAG screening reactions, it looks like Nicole Kidman gives a knockout performance as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos. Oscar voters love their biopics, and Kidman is a previous winner. 

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe "Nightmare Alley"

Jamie Dornan "Belfast"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast" 

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Other Contenders - Jon Bernthal "King Richard", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Richard Jenkins "The Humans", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Robin de Jesus "tick, tick...boom!", Jared Leto "House of Gucci", Al Pacino "House of Gucci", David Alvarez "West Side Story", Corey Hawkins "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Jonah Hill "Don't Look Up", Idris Elba "The Harder They Fall", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Colman Domingo "Zola", Jason Isaacs "Mass", Reed Birney "Mass", Mary Rylance "Don't Look Up", David Strathairn "Nightmare Alley"

Commentary - This race feels like the most up in the air heading into the thick of Oscar season. The only two that seem really solid right now are Ciaran Hinds for Belfast and Kodi Smith-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. Two scene-stealing performers in Best Picture frontrunners. While Jamie Dornan has not received as high of marks as his co-stars for his performance in Belfast, that film is so buzzed right now, and he is working the campaign circuit. Those two things always help in a close or toss-up race. CODA is the little film that could, and Troy Kotsur is a beating heart on screen. Finally, sight unseen, Willem Dafoe has racked up a lot of Oscar nods recently and he is once again taking on a big role, this time in a Guillermo Del Toro film. It feels like an Oscar nomination to me. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Sian Heder "CODA"

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"

Guillermo Del Toro and Kim Morgan "Nightmare Alley"

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up"

Zach Baylin "King Richard"

Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers"