Final 2022 Oscar Winner Predictions

Well, our normal tradition of a podcast episode was thwarted by illness, but we still wanted to make sure that you saw Andrew's final predictions before Oscar night. The ceremony will be on ABC this Sunday, March 27th at 8:00 p.m. on ABC. 

Best Picture

Will Win - CODA

Could Win - The Power of the Dog

Should Win - Drive My Car

Commentary - The Power of the Dog has been out front for months now. However, I have always wondered how that film would do on the preferential ballot, which favors films that are well-liked. The Power of the Dog is well-respected, but it has its detractors. That hurts it with this kind of voting system. Then CODA won the PGA (which has a preferential ballot as well) and SAG. CODA, the film about a child of deaf parents, the coming-of-age film that makes you cheer. This is the kind of movie that wins on a preferential ballot. This is the film that everyone likes and it has few people rooting against its success. The Power of the Dog has so much support, 12 total nominations, and CODA would be the first film to win without a technical nod in a long time. So this is not a done deal by any means. However, at just the right moment CODA is peaking, and I think it will pull off a major upset. 

Best Director

Will Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Could Win - Steven Spielberg "West Side Story" or Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Should Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - Whatever happens in the Best Picture race, Jane Campion is winning Best Director. She has won every major precursor, she has dominated the season, and to be honest, while I didn't love The Power of the Dog, I completely respected the film as a piece of art, and think that Campion's direction was flawless. I think Oscar voters will agree. 

Best Actor

Will Win - Will Smith "King Richard"

Could Win - Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!" or Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Smith or Garfield

Commentary - I think this race is closer than a lot of people are expecting, and I would not be surprised at all if Andrew Garfield or Benedict Cumberbatch pulled out a last minute upset. But then Will Smith won SAG, and then, in a real shocker, won BAFTA, up against Cumberbatch who felt like a lock with British voters. That shows the depth of the support for Will Smith's magnum opus film King Richard. He has been acting for decades now, this is his third nomination, and he carries one of the biggest Oscar contenders with his bravura and screen presence. The time has come for him to finally get this level of recognition, and I think Oscar voters agree. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Could Win - Any of the other four

Should Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - The wildest race of the year continues to baffle prognosticators, especially as a lot of voters are expressing support for Penelope Cruz. She has zero precursors of note, and in many cases, was not even nominated. Yet, the calls for her win are growing louder and louder. Nicole Kidman lost the second she lost the SAG Award, and I feel that Kristen Stewart lost when she lost at Critics Choice, which felt like her group. Both of those awards went to Jessica Chastain for her passion project The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Olivia Colman has never won an individual SAG Award, and yet has an Emmy and an Oscar. She should not be discounted. Chastain is the front runner for now, but watch out for Cruz and Colman, as the surprises may last all the way up until the time the envelope is opened. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Could Win - Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - In the first phase of the Oscar season, Kodi Smit-McPhee was way out front for this award. Then SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA hit, and Troy Kotsur, a hard-working deaf character actor who finally got his break, swept the awards. Kotsur has the performance and the story to win over voters, and he is winning this award in a walk. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Could Win - Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard" or Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - Ariana DeBose tackles the iconic role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar, and did so with Rita Moreno sharing the screen. DeBose knocked it out of the park. She was bold, vibrant, emotionally resonant, and her talent lit up the screen. She will win her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Sian Heder "CODA"

Best Original Screenplay - Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Best Animated Feature - Encanto

Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature - Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography - Dune

Best Costume Design - Cruella

Best Film Editing - Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score - Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song - Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design - Dune

Best Sound - Dune

Best Visual Effects - Dune

Best Animated Short - Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short - The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short - The Long Goodbye