Final 2022 Oscar Winner Predictions

Well, our normal tradition of a podcast episode was thwarted by illness, but we still wanted to make sure that you saw Andrew's final predictions before Oscar night. The ceremony will be on ABC this Sunday, March 27th at 8:00 p.m. on ABC. 

Best Picture

Will Win - CODA

Could Win - The Power of the Dog

Should Win - Drive My Car

Commentary - The Power of the Dog has been out front for months now. However, I have always wondered how that film would do on the preferential ballot, which favors films that are well-liked. The Power of the Dog is well-respected, but it has its detractors. That hurts it with this kind of voting system. Then CODA won the PGA (which has a preferential ballot as well) and SAG. CODA, the film about a child of deaf parents, the coming-of-age film that makes you cheer. This is the kind of movie that wins on a preferential ballot. This is the film that everyone likes and it has few people rooting against its success. The Power of the Dog has so much support, 12 total nominations, and CODA would be the first film to win without a technical nod in a long time. So this is not a done deal by any means. However, at just the right moment CODA is peaking, and I think it will pull off a major upset. 

Best Director

Will Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Could Win - Steven Spielberg "West Side Story" or Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Should Win - Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - Whatever happens in the Best Picture race, Jane Campion is winning Best Director. She has won every major precursor, she has dominated the season, and to be honest, while I didn't love The Power of the Dog, I completely respected the film as a piece of art, and think that Campion's direction was flawless. I think Oscar voters will agree. 

Best Actor

Will Win - Will Smith "King Richard"

Could Win - Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!" or Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Smith or Garfield

Commentary - I think this race is closer than a lot of people are expecting, and I would not be surprised at all if Andrew Garfield or Benedict Cumberbatch pulled out a last minute upset. But then Will Smith won SAG, and then, in a real shocker, won BAFTA, up against Cumberbatch who felt like a lock with British voters. That shows the depth of the support for Will Smith's magnum opus film King Richard. He has been acting for decades now, this is his third nomination, and he carries one of the biggest Oscar contenders with his bravura and screen presence. The time has come for him to finally get this level of recognition, and I think Oscar voters agree. 

Best Actress

Will Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Could Win - Any of the other four

Should Win - Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - The wildest race of the year continues to baffle prognosticators, especially as a lot of voters are expressing support for Penelope Cruz. She has zero precursors of note, and in many cases, was not even nominated. Yet, the calls for her win are growing louder and louder. Nicole Kidman lost the second she lost the SAG Award, and I feel that Kristen Stewart lost when she lost at Critics Choice, which felt like her group. Both of those awards went to Jessica Chastain for her passion project The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Olivia Colman has never won an individual SAG Award, and yet has an Emmy and an Oscar. She should not be discounted. Chastain is the front runner for now, but watch out for Cruz and Colman, as the surprises may last all the way up until the time the envelope is opened. 

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Could Win - Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - In the first phase of the Oscar season, Kodi Smit-McPhee was way out front for this award. Then SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA hit, and Troy Kotsur, a hard-working deaf character actor who finally got his break, swept the awards. Kotsur has the performance and the story to win over voters, and he is winning this award in a walk. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Could Win - Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard" or Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Should Win - Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - Ariana DeBose tackles the iconic role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar, and did so with Rita Moreno sharing the screen. DeBose knocked it out of the park. She was bold, vibrant, emotionally resonant, and her talent lit up the screen. She will win her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Sian Heder "CODA"

Best Original Screenplay - Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"

Best Animated Feature - Encanto

Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Best International Feature - Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography - Dune

Best Costume Design - Cruella

Best Film Editing - Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score - Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song - Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design - Dune

Best Sound - Dune

Best Visual Effects - Dune

Best Animated Short - Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short - The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short - The Long Goodbye

First 2022 Oscar Win Predictions

The nominations have been announced! Starting tomorrow night, the first guild awards start to announce their winners, giving us a clearer picture of who is out front in the Oscar race. Before those awards, here is Andrew's first take at who might take home gold on Oscar night.

Best Picture

The Power of the Dog

Commentary - The Power of the Dog led the nomination pack, and overperformed by most pundits' standards, including getting a second Best Supporting Actor nomination. It also has the across-the-board support that films like Parasite, Nomadland, and The Shape of Water had, including the actors, the directors, the writers, and the technical branches. In confusing years like when Moonlight, Green Book, Spotlight won, it was the actor/writer focused movie that won out over the visual/director focused movie. The Power of the Dog has all the necessary components, and is the clear front runner. However, despite all evidence to the contrary, I still don't think it is a slam dunk. I think Campion is a slam dunk for Director and screenplay. But this film is not loveable. It doesn't have quite the emotional heft of films like Green Book, Nomadland, The Shape of Water, Moonlight, Spotlight, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, aka the films that have conquered the elusive preferential ballot. I think this helps Belfast and King Richard, both of which also did well with nominations, and are the types of films that may benefit from the current ballot system. 

Best Director

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Commentary - No matter what happens in Best Picture, I will be genuinely jaw-dropped if Campion doesn't sweep from here on out. 

Best Actor

Will Smith "King Richard"

Commentary - Smith will most likely win at SAG, and Cumberbatch will most likely win at BAFTA. Garfield is still the outlier threat, although tick, tick...BOOM! missing out on a Best Picture nomination  hindered some of his momentum. Conventional Oscar wisdom says that this is Will Smith's time, which would be an excellent choice for voters. But he has been filming a movie and has not been campaigning a lot. On the flipside Cumberbatch has been everywhere. We know that these campaigns are often effective (although Lady Gaga might disagree with you this year), and it could tip the scales in his favor. 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"

Commentary - Don't believe anyone who tells you they know who is going to win Best Actress this year. They do not. This race continues to throw curveballs, and the final one could be on Oscar night. Kidman feels like the front runner for a lot of people, but Being the Ricardos was not as well liked outside of the acting branch. That means she will probably win SAG, but may not be a lock for the Oscar. Olivia Colman is strong, and has won a lot of awards lately. The problem is that she missed at BAFTA, and if she doesn't win SAG, there is no precursor to anchor a potential win. This goes for Kristen Stewart as well. She could upset, and there would be no way to see it coming. I am going out on a limb for Jessica Chastain. Chastain has never won despite several nominations, she is magnificent in the role, her film did get support outside of her nomination, and many would argue (I would definitely argue) she is way overdue for some recognition. I'll wait to see how SAG plays out, but my hunch is Chastain is stronger than we think. 

Best Supporting Actor

Troy Kotsur "CODA"

Commentary - Everyone is predicting Kodi Smit-McPhee, as he was the critical darling, and in the Best Picture front runner. Two things could complicate his winning. First, he now has internal competition with Jesse Plemmons, who is a beloved veteran. Second, his performance is understated, odd, and has an erratic ending. By comparison, Troy Kotsur's performance in CODA makes you want to stand up and cheer. I think he surprises at SAG, and then surprises on Oscar night. 

Best Supporting Actress

Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"

Commentary - DeBose, Ellis, and Dunst would make for an interesting three-way race. The problem is that I don't think it is that much of a race. Ariana DeBose has been doing so well with the precursors, has the flashiest role of the bunch, is playing a character that has already won another actress an Oscar, and has the personal story that is really capturing the hearts of voters. I think she waltzes through the rest of the season on the way to her first Academy Award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"

Best Animated Feature

Encanto

Best Documentary Feature

Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not be Televised)

Best Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography

Dune

Best Costume Design

Cruella

Best Film Editing

Don't Look Up

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Original Score

Hans Zimmer "Dune"

Best Original Song

Encanto - Dos Oruguitas

Best Production Design

Dune

Best Sound

Dune

Best Visual Effects

Dune

Best Animated Short

Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short

The Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short

The Long Goodbye

94th Annual Academy Award Nominations

Best Picture

“Belfast”

“CODA”

“Don’t Look Up”

“Drive My Car”

“Dune”

“King Richard”

“Licorice Pizza”

“Nightmare Alley”

“The Power of the Dog”

“West Side Story”

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”

Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”

Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”

Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”

Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick, Boom”

Will Smith, “King Richard”

Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”

Penelope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”

Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”

Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”

Troy Kotsur, “CODA”

Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”

JK Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”

Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”

Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”

Judi Dench, “Belfast”

Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”

Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”

Best Adapted Screenplay

“CODA,” Sian Heder

“Drive My Car,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe

“Dune,” Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth

“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal

“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion

Best Original Screenplay

“Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh

“Don’t Look Up,” Adam McKay, Story by McKay and David Sirota

“King Richard,” Zack Baylin

“Licorice Pizza,” Paul Thomas Anderson

“The Worst Person in the World,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

Best Animated Feature

“Encanto”

“Flee”

“Luca”

“The Mitchells vs. the Machines”

“Raya and the Last Dragon”

Best Documentary Feature

“Ascension”

“Attica”

“Flee”

“Summer of Soul”

“Writing with Fire”

Best International Feature Film

“Drive My Car”

“Flee”

“The Hand of God”

“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”

“The Worst Person in the World”

Best Cinematography

“Dune”

“Nightmare Alley”

“The Power of the Dog”

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

“West Side Story”

Best Costume Design

“Cruella”

“Cyrano”

“Dune”

“Nightmare Alley”

“West Side Story”

Best Editing

“Don’t Look Up”

“Dune”

“King Richard”

“The Power of the Dog”

“Tick, Tick, Boom”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Coming 2 America”

“Cruella”

“Dune”

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

“House of Gucci”

Best Original Score

“Don’t Look Up”

“Dune”

“Encanto”

“Parallel Mothers”

“The Power of the Dog”

Best Original Song

“Be Alive” from “King Richard”

“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”

“Down to Joy” from “Belfast”

“No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”

“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”

Best Production Design

“Dune”

“Nightmare Alley”

“The Power of the Dog”

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

“West Side Story”

Best Sound

“Belfast”

“Dune”

“No Time to Die”

“The Power of the Dog”

“West Side Story”

Best Visual Effects

“Dune”

“Free Guy”

“No Time to Die”

“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

Best Animated Short

“Affairs of the Art”

“Bestia”

“Boxballet”

“Robin Robin”

“The Windshield Wiper”

Best Documentary Short

“Audible”

“Lead Me Home”

“The Queen of Basketball”

“Three Songs for Benazir”

“When We Were Bullies”

Best Live Action Short

“Ala Kachuu- Take and Run”

“The Dress”

“The Long Goodbye”

“On My Mind”

“Please Hold”