As the critical awards wrap up in Phase 1, Phase 2 of Oscar season, the guild phase, is already starting to change the game. The critics awards are a great way to get your film recognized, and to increase the buzz on your film. But the guilds, and BAFTA (the British Oscars), are the real tests of your film's overall strength. These voters have direct crossovers with the Academy, and have been much more indicative over the years than the critics groups. So far we have the SAG Nominations and the BAFTA Longlists, both of which are giving us an early snapshot of how the industry itself is viewing these contenders. The Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), the Writers Guild (WGA), and the final BAFTA nominations, along with the craft guilds will create a clearer picture heading into February 8th's nomination announcement. So let's take a look at where the race stands before the flood of guild nominations. Also, be on the lookout for an upcoming episode of Gaston Speaks for my final Oscar nomination predictions!
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Other Contenders - Drive My Car, tick, tick...boom!, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Nightmare Alley, Spencer, Being the Ricardos, Parallel Mothers
Commentary - Belfast, The Power of the Dog and Dune continue to do well across the board. All three will end up with the kind of broad support that builds a Best Picture nomination. King Richard has slipped lately, and the absence of Aunjanue Ellis at SAG is not a great sign for the film. However it still managed a SAG Ensemble nod, and I think will do well at the other guilds. Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, and The Tragedy of Macbeth only managed one SAG nod apiece, but again, I am seeing a lot of support for these films, and all three should make the PGA cut, and do well with the craft guilds. CODA is still the little film that could, managing a SAG Ensemble nod, and continuing to pop up in the critical awards. It will need the power of the PGA Award, and maybe some surprise BAFTA love to continue to stay in the race. If it manages to do so, watch out. It is a film that makes your heart beat, and those films often do well on the preferential ballot for Best Picture. The final two slots are head scratchers at the moment. I have left in Don't Look Up despite negative critical reviews. It keeps popping up at the critical awards (a weird coincidence), and got the SAG Ensemble nomination. It is also incredibly popular at Netflix, smashing viewership expectations, and the audiences have been much more kind. The critics may not be happy (although again, it clearly has its supporters as it has gotten a surprising amount of love with the critical awards), but this feels like the kind of movie that the industry will support, and it clearly has a passionate fanbase that is going to bat for it on their ballots. The final slot was shocker for me, as I moved House of Gucci back into the race. Like Don't Look Up, its critical outcome was pretty mixed. However, after its great showing at SAG, an excellent box office run, and its stunning 13 mentions in the BAFTA longlists, including Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay, and Adam Driver and Al Pacino, this film feels like it is a lot stronger than expected. Again, it seems to have a passionate fanbase that its going all out. Beyond those ten, Drive My Car has done well with critics, but has yet to see guild love. No Time to Die could rack up a lot of love with BAFTA, which could propel it to more Oscar love than expected. Spider-Man: No Way Home is launching a huge effort. Finally, Parallel Mothers, tick, tick...boom!, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, Spencer, and Being the Ricardos are hitting a lot of the right notes and could surprise.
Best Director
Ryusuke Hamaguchi "Drive My Car"
Denis Villeneuve "Dune"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Steven Spielberg "West Side Story"
Other Contenders - Adam McKay "Don't Look Up", Kenneth Branagh "Belfast", Sian Heder "CODA", Reinaldo Marcus Green "King Richard", Ridley Scott "House of Gucci", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter", Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Lin-Manuel Miranda "tick, tick...boom!", Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos"
Commentary - Villeneuve, Anderson, Campion, and Spielberg, unless the DGA and BAFTA throw us a curveball, look solid at this point. The last slot is tricky. I have recently moved out folks like Branagh, Heder, and Green. Their films may do well in the Best Picture race, but they are not the kind of films that do well with this eccentric Directors Branch of the Academy. Adam McKay might surprise for a third time in this category, and I have him in sixth place. Joel Coen, Pedro Almodovar, and Guillermo Del Toro are favorites of these voters. Lin-Manuel Miranda's direction is stylish, and Ridley Scott, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and Aaron Sorkin are interesting outliers. Instead, whether Drive My Car gets into Best Picture or not, I think this branch is going to easily go for Ryusuke Hamaguchi's brilliant direction of Drive My Car. Lots of foreign film directors or visionary indie directors have made the Best Director list, even if their films missed Best Picture. Just last year, we saw Thomas Vinterberg get in, but Another Round did not. Since 2000 names like David Lynch, Pedro Almodovar, Fernando Meirielles, Paul Greengrass, Mike Leigh, Julian Schnabel, Bennett Miller, and Pawel Pawlikowski have gotten a Best Director nod, while their films missed the top prize. Hamaguchi feels like he will join the list.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem "Being the Ricardos"
Benedict Cumberbatch "The Power of the Dog"
Andrew Garfield "tick, tick...boom!"
Will Smith "King Richard"
Denzel Washington "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Other Contenders - Peter Dinklage "Cyrano", Leonardo DiCaprio "Don't Look Up", Daniel Craig "No Time to Die", Nicholas Cage "Pig", Bradley Cooper "Nightmare Alley", Joaquin Phoenix "C'mon C'mon", Cooper Hoffman "Licorice Pizza"
Commentary - Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington are ready to go for this race that could be a fun one to watch to see who wins. That fifth slot is a toss-up. Javier Bardem got in at SAG, I think DiCaprio or Dinklage will get a BAFTA nod, and I still think voters might look to Nicholas Cage. Right now, I am sticking with Bardem, a previous winner that is getting a lot of buzz despite the films overall mixed response.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"
Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"
Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"
Kristen Stewart "Spencer"
Other Contenders - Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Rachel Zegler "West Side Story", Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Emilia Jones "CODA", Frances McDormand "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Jennifer Lawrence "Don't Look Up", Renate Reinsve "The Worst Person in the World", Tessa Thompson "Passing"
Commentary - Kristen Stewart missing out at SAG was the jaw dropper of that morning. Can she rebound? I think the answer is yes. I think BAFTA will go for her, and I think that her missing at SAG has enraged her supporters, and made them even more determined to get her a nomination. Think Ben Affleck in Argo, and the effectiveness of that campaign. So then who gets left out? I don't foresee Colman, Gaga, or Kidman missing out at this point. Unfortunately I think it is Jennifer Hudson, who was excellent in Respect, even though the film overall was not. Jessica Chastain is also vulnerable because, like Hudson, The Eyes of Tammy Faye is not getting a lot of love really anywhere else. Although Chastain has been stronger throughout the season, and I think, right now at least, she retains her spot. Beyond Stewart, I think there still could be some surprises waiting for the slots currently held by Hudson, and maybe Chastain. Rachel Zegler is a powerhouse, Alana Haim is getting a lot of attention, and BAFTA could throw a curveball with Reinsve.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"
Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"
Troy Kotsur "CODA"
Jared Leto "House of Gucci"
Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Jamie Dornan "Belfast", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Mike Faist "West Side Story", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Mark Rylance "Don't Look Up"
Commentary - This race has the most intrigue to it, and the most chances for surprises. When neither Belfast actor made the SAG cut, a lot of folks were thrown for a loop. I think that BAFTA could correct that, and at least one of them, most likely Hinds, who is the better performance, can still take a slot. That slot is most likely Ben Affleck's. The Tender Bar is not doing well outside of his performance, and this feels like one of those SAG Nods that ends of missing the cut. Think Jennifer Aniston in Cake. Kotsur, Leto, and Smit-McPhee feel solid, and even though it is small role, the outsized influence that Cooper's performance has had, and now a SAG nod, makes him feel like a strong contender moving forward. However, as this race continues to baffle the experts, and names like Dornan, Simmons, Plemmons, Faist, and Rylance cannot be forgotten.
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"
Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"
Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"
Ruth Negga "Passing"
Other Contenders - Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Cate Blanchett "Don't Look Up", Ann Dowd "Mass", Marlee Matlin "CODA", Rita Moreno "West Side Story", Judi Dench "Belfast", Meryl Streep "Don't Look Up"
Commentary - Ellis' snub at SAG was a big miss, especially considering the reception she received at SAG events. However, I think Cate Blanchett, as popular as she is, is vulnerable. She made the BAFTA longlist cut, but for Don't Look Up. If those two films are splitting her votes, and Nightmare Alley continues to slip in the overall race, I think she is the one SAG nominee that doesn't cross over. In that case, I think Ellis can still take her rightful slot alongside Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Negga, who feel like they are getting close to safe in this race. Ann Dowd's SAG miss most likely means she is out of the race, as is Marlee Matlin, who also missed the BAFTA longlists. I am also continuing to keep my eye out for the trio of Oscar-winning legends, Rita Moreno, Meryl Streep, and Judi Dench. Oscar voters may not want to pass up yet another chance to reward these three endearing favorites.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Sian Heder "CODA"
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"
Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Tony Kushner "West Side Story"
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branah "Belfast"
Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up"
Zach Baylin "King Richard"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers"
Best Animated Feature
Belle
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Documentary Feature
Flee
In the Same Breath
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Would Not Be Televised)
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser "Dune"
Dan Laustsen "Nightmare Alley"
Ari Wegner "The Power of the Dog"
Bruno Delbonnel "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Janusz Kaminiski "West Side Story""
Best Costume Design
Cruella
House of Gucci
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Best Film Editing
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Best Original Score
Nicholas Britell "Don't Look Up"
Hans Zimmer "Dune"
Alexandre Desplat "The French Dispatch"
Alberto Iglesias "Parallel Mothers"
Jonny Greenwood "The Power of the Dog"
Best Original Song
Don't Look Up - Just Look Up
Encanto - Dos Oruguitas
Four Good Days - Somehow You Do
King Richard - Be Alive
No Time to Die - No Time to Die
Best Production Design
The French Dispatch
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Sound
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick...boom!
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
