Oscar nominations will be announced bright and early at 8;15 a.m. EST on Tuesday, February 8th by Leslie Jordan and Tracee Ellis Ross. As promised in the Gaston Speaks episode, here are my FINAL, post-BAFTA nomination predictions!
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Other Contenders – tick, tick…boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spider-Man: No Way Home, House of Gucci, Parallel Mothers, The French Dispatch
Commentary – So in the past couple of years, the Academy has had this 5-10 model, where the number of nominees could fluctuate. Almost every year, it was either eight or nine nominees. In that old system, I could predict your eight pretty easily based on the guilds so far. The five DGA nods (West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Dune), plus I would include CODA, Don’t Look Up, and King Richard for their WGA/PGA/SAG Ensemble trifecta. BAFTA's five were Belfast, Dune, Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, and The Power of the Dog. Since they did not throw us any curveballs, I feel better about those eight predictions. But the Academy has decided to move back to a solid 10 nominees. The last two slots are tricky. The PGA went with Being the Ricardos and tick, tick…boom!. Crafty films like Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth have a lot of support from the below the line guilds. House of Gucci had a lot of SAG support, and yes, Spider-Man has been given an official Oscar campaign. I keep thinking that Being the Ricardos will falter at the Oscars, but it just keeps showing up and doing well at the guilds. I think it is in. tick, tick…boom! Got a PGA and WGA nod, and DGA first film nomination. But, when I am looking at its chances. It might only get Sound and Andrew Garfield, whereas Being the Ricardos could get Kidman, Bardem, screenplay, and maybe some craft nods. The last several years, the international membership of the Academy has exponentially increased, and you have seen that in some of the surprise nominations. I think Drive My Car could be the latest film to benefit, and will take the final slot. It could get Director, screenplay, and international film. Kind of reminds me of Amour a couple of years ago, which surprised in Best Picture.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson “Licorice Pizza”
Kenneth Branagh “Belfast”
Jane Campion “The Power of the Dog”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi “Drive My Car”
Denis Villeneuve “Dune”
Other Contenders – Steven Spielberg “West Side Story”, Pedro Almodovar “Parallel Mothers”
Commentary – The DGA five are the five that I have been predicting for a long time now. But, I know these Academy voters in this Director’s Branch, and they are an incredible diverse and international group of voters. You can see over the years the many times where they have gone for an out of the box pick. I think Spielberg could miss out. Even though he is fantastic, I could see them picking someone else over a director of a reboot and someone that have rewarded many times in the past. Again, I think that director Ryusuke Hamaguch for Drive My Car is going to take the slot. He got a BAFTA nod, just like Pawel Pawelowski and Thomas Vinterberg the last two years. This could also benefit Pedro Almodovar who has been nominated here before. The other four DGA Slots, I feel more comfortable about, those being Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog, Kenneth Branagh for Belfast, Denis Villeneuve for Dune, and Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza.
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”
Leonardo DiCaprio “Don’t Look Up”
Andrew Garfield “tick, tick…boom!”
Will Smith “King Richard”
Denzel Washington “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Other Contenders – Javier Bardem “Being the Ricardos”, Peter Dinklage “Cyrano”, Cooper Hoffman “Licorice Pizza”, Mahershala Ali "Swan Song"
Commentary – This race, compared to some of the other ones, has been pretty consistent. There are four slots that are locked and ready to go. Will Smith for King Richard. Benedict Cumberbatch “The Power of the Dog”, Andrew Garfield “tick, tick…boom!”, and Denzel Washington “The Tragedy of Macbeth”. SAG put Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos in the last slot, but he is vulnerable. Peter Dinklage for Joe Wright’s Cyrano had a lot of support, but without BAFTA or SAG, his chances are diminishing quickly. Cooper Hoffman is great in Licorice Pizza, and Mahershala Ali, a two-time Oscar winner, got a surprise BAFTA nod. But I am going with Leonardo DiCaprio for Adam McKay's Don't Look Up. When he missed at SAG, I felt like it was over, as he is one of the most rewarded actors in SAG history. But he did get in at BAFTA, and I feel like the love of Don't Look Up is getting stronger right at the most important moment.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza"
Olivia Colman "The Lost Daughter"
Lady Gaga "House of Gucci"
Nicole Kidman "Being the Ricardos"
Other Contenders - Jennifer Hudson "Respect", Penelope Cruz "Parallel Mothers", Emilia Jones "CODA", Kristen Stewart "Spencer", Tessa Thompson "Passing"
Commentary - This race has been in so much flux, I am still expecting a jaw-dropper on Tuesday morning. BAFTA definitely threw this race for another loop, with their own Olivia Colman being snubbed, and the additions of Alana Haim and Emilia Jones. Colman should still be fine, she is beloved by the Oscar voters, is a recent Emmy winner, and last year the BAFTA jury snubbed Carey Mulligan, a fellow Brit who still managed an Oscar nomination. Lady Gaga is the only actor to hit all of the major precursors so far, and feels like a lock. SAG nominated Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman, who have been strong throughout the circuit, I feel like that will translate to Oscar voters. Also both have been honored before by this group. The final slot is a mess, and I feel like there are still four or five actresses in contention. Jennifer Hudson got in at SAG, and there is a lot of love for the former winner. Penelope Cruz, despite no major precursors, could do better with the more international makeup of the Academy compared to SAG and BAFTA. Emilia Jones got a surprise BAFTA nod, and CODA is a major Best Picture contender. Tessa Thompson also got in at BAFTA, and her co-star Ruth Negga is expected to get a Supporting nod. Could coattails follow, and both get in? I am switching my final slot to Alana Haim. The BAFTA nod was an unexpected for her and Licorice Pizza is performing incredibly well across the board. Voters are clearly watching this film, and she has received raves. I think she surprises.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"
Mike Faist "West Side Story"
Ciaran Hinds "Belfast"
Troy Kotsur "CODA"
Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Jared Leto "House of Gucci", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Jamie Dornan "Belfast", Woody Norman "C'mon C'mon"
Commentary - Only two guys in this race are locks: Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur for CODA. They have gotten all the major precursors, and I think the Oscar is between them. A lot of folks are predicting Smit-McPhee, but I think Kotsur, and his heartfelt performance, could easily sweep the second half of the awards. After the Belfast guys were snubbed at SAG, I expected a BAFTA rebound. Only Ciaran Hinds made the cut. I think that is an indication that Jamie Dornan's chances are diminishing fast. I do think Hinds will also cross over with Oscar voters. Bradley Cooper getting in at SAG, to me, was incredibly indicative of support, especially for such a small role. Also Licorice Pizza is clearly one of the top Best Picture contenders. House of Gucci did so well at SAG, with Jared Leto joining this race. I just wonder if that will translate to the Academy's voters, same thing with Ben Affleck in The Tender Bar. These feel like more populist SAG nominations than Oscar nods. Instead, I am going with BAFTA nominees Hinds, and Mike Faist for West Side Story. He has been mentioned a lot for the film, but missed out at the bigger ceremonies. The BAFTA nod showcases that the support is building. In the sixth slot is Jesse Plemmons, who finally popped up at BAFTA alongside his co-star Smit-McPhee. The performance is so subtle, I think the eye-popping singing and dancing of Feist will appeal more to the actors. Finally, Woody Norman's BAFTA nod was a great notice for a great performance, but that film looks like it is not getting anything else across the board. Plus child actors often get overlooked.
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe "Belfast"
Ariana DeBose "West Side Story"
Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"
Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard"
Ruth Negga "Passing"
Other Contenders - Jessie Buckley "The Lost Daughter", Ann Dowd "Mass", Cate Blanchett "Nightmare Alley", Rita Moreno "West Side Story"
Commentary - Another category with so much in flux. Between SAG and BAFTA, we have eight contenders for five slots (and I am still keeping in Rita Moreno just in case). Caitriona Balfe for Belfast, Ariana DeBose for West Side Story, and Ruth Negga for Passing, are the only three that have gotten all of the major precursors so far. Cate Blanchett got in for Nightmare Alley at SAG, but that film has since not done as well with the guild awards. Also, the populist voting body of SAG often throws in bigger names that end up not making the final Oscar cut. Kirsten Dunst felt like a lock, but missed out at BAFTA, a surprise considering Jesse Plemmons got in for Supporting Actor. But I still feel like she is solid, due to the popularity of that film overall. In the final slot, I am keeping Aunjanue Ellis. I feel like she was the sixth slot for SAG, and she managed a BAFTA nod, which I was not predicting. Jessie Buckley feels like the wild card here for The Lost Daughter. Her BAFTA nod confirmed she is in the hunt. Ann Dowd's BAFTA nod also boosted a campaign that sputtered when she missed out at SAG. I think both of them could surprise on Tuesday morning.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Sian Heder "CODA"
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe "Drive My Car"
Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve "Dune"
Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Guillermo Del Toro "Nightmare Alley", Steven Levenson "tick, tick...boom!", Tony Kushner "West Side Story"
Commentary - For full details, check out the Gaston Speaks episode. BAFTA confirmed my predictions.
Best Original Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos"
Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"
Adam McKay "Don't Look Up"
Zach Baylin "King Richard"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Other Contenders - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola & Hugo Guinness & Jason Schwartzman "The French Dispatch", Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Mike Mills "C'mon C'mon"
Commentary - For full details, check out the Gaston Speaks episode. BAFTA confirmed my predictions.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Other Contenders - Belle, Sing 2, The Summit of the Gods
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Would Not Be Televised)
Other Contenders - Attica, Writing With Fire, Simple as Water, The Velvet Underground, Julia, The First Wave, In the Same Breath
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (Iran)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Other Contenders - Hive (Kosovo), Compartment No. 6 (Finland), Lamb (Iceland), Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan), Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser "Dune"
Dan Laustsen "Nightmare Alley"
Linus Sandgren "No Time to Die"
Ari Wegner "The Power of the Dog"
Burno Delbonnel "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Other Contenders - Haris Zambarloukos "Belfast", Janusz Kaminski "West Side Story"
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Other Contenders - Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Coming 2 America, The Green Knight, The Suicide Squad, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Don't Look Up, In the Heights, No Time to Die
Best Film Editing
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
Other Contenders - King Richard, tick, tick...boom!, Summer of Soul, West Side Story, The French Dispatch, Cruella
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Other Contenders - Cyrano, Coming 2 America, The Suicide Squad, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
Best Original Score
Daniel Pemberton "Being the Ricardos"
Nicholas Britell "Don't Look Up"
Hans Zimmer "Dune"
Alexandre Desplat "The French Dispatch"
Jonny Greenwood "The Power of the Dog"
Other Contenders - Alberto Iglesias "Parallel Mothers", Hans Zimmer "No Time to Die", Kris Bowers "King Richard", Germaine Franco "Encanto", Daniel Hart "The Green Knight"
Best Original Song
Don' Look Up - Just Look Up
Encanto - Dos Oruguitas
Four Good Days - Somehow You Do
King Richard - Be Alive
No Time to Die - No Time to Die
Other Contenders - Respect - Here I Am Singing My Own Way Home, Belfast - Down to Joy, Annette - So May We Start, Sing 2 - Your Song Saved My Life, CODA - Beyond the Shore
Best Production Design
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Other Contenders - Cyrano, Licorice Pizza, Cruella, Belfast, The Power of the Dog, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Green Knight, House of Gucci, Spencer, Being the Ricardos
Best Sound
Dune
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
tick, tick...boom!
West Side Story
Other Contenders - The Power of the Dog, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Last Night in Soho
Best Visual Effects
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Other Contenders - Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Godzilla vs. Kong, Eternals, Black Widow
Best Animated Short
Only a Child
Robin Robin
Step Into the River
Us Again
The Windshield Wiper
Best Documentary Short
Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis
The Queen of Basketball
Terror Contagion
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Best Live Action Short
Censor Dreams
The Criminals
The Long Goodbye
Tala'vision
When The Sun Sets
